Exploration Upside

Glaucus: Upside Potential

With only one exploration well drilled, significant uncertainty remains about Glaucus's full potential. The field could be substantially larger than current estimates, pending appraisal results.

Current Estimate

5-8 Tcf

Based on single discovery well (2019)

Potential Upside

10-15 Tcf

If upside factors are confirmed

Reserve Scenarios

Base Case

Current best estimate from discovery well. Assumes moderate reservoir extent.

50% probability
Reserves
5-6 Tcf
Gross Value
$25-30B

Upside Case

Larger structure, better reservoir quality. Could rival Israel's Leviathan.

25% probability
Reserves
8-10 Tcf
Gross Value
$40-50B

High Upside

Multiple stacked reservoirs, extended structure. Mega-field status.

10% probability
Reserves
10-15 Tcf
Gross Value
$50-75B

What Could Add Volume?

Structural Extension

Seismic suggests the structure may extend beyond current mapped area

Could add 2-4 Tcf

Deeper Reservoirs

Untested deeper zones may contain additional gas accumulations

Could add 1-3 Tcf

Nearby Prospects

Block 10 contains additional prospects that could tie into Glaucus

Could add 2-5 Tcf

Better Recovery

High-quality reservoir could support recovery factor above 80%

Could add 1-2 Tcf

Regional Comparison

Field Country Reserves Status
Zohr Egypt 30 Tcf Producing
Leviathan Israel 22 Tcf Producing
Glaucus (upside) Cyprus 10-15 Tcf Potential
Glaucus (base) Cyprus 5-8 Tcf Discovery
Tamar Israel 10 Tcf Producing
Aphrodite Cyprus 4 Tcf Development

At the high end of estimates (10-15 Tcf), Glaucus would rank among the largest gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean.

What Appraisal Will Reveal

The upcoming appraisal program will significantly de-risk the resource estimate. Key questions to be answered:

1

Structure Size

How far does the gas column extend? Appraisal wells will test the structure limits.

2

Reservoir Quality

Porosity and permeability determine flow rates and ultimate recovery.

3

Gas-Water Contact

Deeper contact means larger gas column and more reserves.

4

Deeper Zones

Are there additional pay zones below the discovery interval?

Value Implications

Base Case (5-8 Tcf)
$25-40B
Gross field value
Upside Case (10-15 Tcf)
$50-75B
Gross field value
Cyprus Government Take
50-60%
Of net revenues

At the high end, Glaucus alone could generate $30-40B+ in government revenues over the field life, transforming Cyprus's fiscal position.

Glaucus Overview ExxonMobil's Plans How Reserves Are Estimated